History Publishing Company Publisher’s Blog

Welcome, Guest • Log In • Lounge Home • Help

History Publishing Company Publisher's Blog

Is the United States in Decline? Symptoms Seen in Others

Don Bracken

Is the United States in Decline? Pundits indicate that it is, President Obama said on television on September 29, 2011, that America has become “a little soft.” It has been 235 years since the Declaration of Independence. That is 9 1/2 generations since the signing. In The Fate of Empires, Sir John Glubb’s studies indicate that the average length of time a great nation or empire enjoys the status as a predominant power is about, but not exactly, 10 generations.

Is the United States then in the final phase of great nation status? Is the debt and political gridlock encumbering the United States, a weight it cannot throw off or is there more to decline than debt and political morass?

The profiles of 13 empires spanning 3000 years that John Glubb presents in his fascinating essay are remarkably similar. Human nature is the one constant factor that has persisted over the years. Despite the political makeup of the great nations studied, the human beings are consistent in behavior patterns.

Are the people, in all their diversity, which make up the United States, the same as the people who made up the Assyrian Empire 3000 years ago, the Imperial Roman Empire 2000 years ago, the Arab empire 1300 years ago or the British Empire 100 years ago?

Glubb writes that they are. The striking features in the pageant of empire are:(a) the extraordinary exactitude with which these stages have followed one another, in empire after empire, over centuries or even millennia; and(b) the fact that the successive changes seem to represent mere changes in popular fashion,new fads and fancies which sweep away public opinion without logical reason.

At first, popular enthusiasm is devoted to military glory, then to the accumulation of wealth and later to the acquisition of academic fame. Why could not all these legitimate, and indeed beneficent, activities be carried on simultaneously, each of them in due moderation? Yet, observes Glubb, this never seemed to happen.”

“Intellectualism leads to excessive verbal discourse,” Glubb discovered.”In the case of the Athenians, intellectualism led to discussion, debate and argument, such as is typical of the United States today. Debates in elected
assemblies or local committees, in articles in the Press or in interviews on television are
endless and incessant chatter.”

Men are interminably different, and intellectual arguments rarely lead to agreement, Glubb discovered.”Public affairs drift from bad to worse, amid an unceasing cacophony of argument. But this constant dedication to discussion seems to destroy the power of action. Amid a Babel of talk, the ship drifts on to the rocks.”

There is inadequacy in the age of intellectualism, a component of decline that Glubb saw throughout the ages. “Perhaps the most dangerous by-product of the Age of Intellect is the unconscious growth of the idea that the human brain can solve the problems of the world. Even on the low level of practical affairs this is patently untrue. Any small human activity such as... the ladies’ luncheon club, requires for its survival a measure of self sacrifice and service on the part of the members. In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on the loyalty and self-sacrifice of the citizens. The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self-dedication can only lead to collapse.”

Glubb cautions, “ Thus we see that the cultivation of the human intellect seems to be a magnificent ideal, but only on condition that it does not weaken unselfishness and human dedication to service. Yet this, judging by historical precedent, seems to be exactly what it does do. Perhaps it is not the intellectualism which destroys the spirit of self-sacrifice, the least we can say is that the two, intellectualism and the loss of a sense of duty, appear simultaneously in the life-story of the nation.”

“Indeed,it often appears in individuals,that the head and the heart are natural rivals. The brilliant but cynical intellectual appears at the opposite end of the spectrum from the emotional self-sacrifice of the hero or the martyr.Yet there are times, when perhaps unsophisticated, self-dedication of the hero is more essential than the sarcasms of the clever.”

Other symptoms of decline are civil dissensions and the intensification of internal political hatreds. One would have expected that,when the survival of the nation became precarious, political factions would drop their rivalry and stand shoulder-to-shoulder to save their country.

“In the fourteenth century, the weakening empire of Byzantium was threatened, and indeed dominated, by the Ottoman Turks. The situation was so serious that one would have expected every subject of Byzantium to abandon his personal interests and to stand with his compatriots in a last desperate attempt to save the country. The reverse occurred. The Byzantines spent the last fifty years of their history fighting one another in repeated civil wars, until the Ottomans moved in and administered the coup de grace.”

Glubb took a sharp look at his homeland.”Britain has been governed by an elected parliament for many centuries. In former years, however, the rival parties observed many unwritten laws. Neither party wished to eliminate the other. All the members referred to one another as honourable gentlemen. But such courtesies have now lapsed. Booing, shouting and loud noises have undermined the dignity of the House, and angry exchanges are more frequent. We are fortunate if these rivalries are fought out in Parliament, but sometimes such hatreds are carried into the streets, or into industry in the form of strikes, demonstrations, boycotts and similar activities. True to the normal course followed by nations in decline, internal differences are not reconciled in an attempt to save the nation.On the contrary, internal rivalries become more acute, as the nation becomes weaker.”

“Decadence,Glubb concludes, is due to too long a period of wealth and power,selfishness,love of money and the loss of a sense of duty. The Age of Decadence, the final phase of decline is marked by seven charactistics:
Defensiveness - Pessimism - Materialism-Frivolity - an Influx of foreigners- the Welfare State- a Weakening of Religion.

The life histories of great states are amazingly similar,and are due to internal factors. Their falls are diverse, because they are largely the result of external causes. History, Glubb concludes, should be taught as the history of the human race, though, of course, with emphasis on the history of the student’s own country.

In the next and final review of The Fate of Empires, Sir John Glubb’s findings will be applied to the behavior patterns in the United States.

For a copy of The Fate of Empires contact the publisher:
William Blackwood & Sons Ltd
32 Thistle Street
Edinburgh EH1 1HA
Scotland

[Discuss this article.]